By Thomas H. Staal, Counsel, U.S. Agency for International Development (retired), Board member of AFRECS
Facts & Figures (revised March 2025):
- Population of Sudan: about 50 million
- In urgent need of food: 25 million
- More people suffering famine or on brink of famine than all other disasters combined
- Displaced from their homes: 10+ million (8.3 Internally Displaced Persons, 2.3 Refugees – 10/2024)
- Deaths so far: official – 26,262; probably around 600,000 (London School of Hygiene – 10/2024)
- Famine declaration (Aug. 2024): 755,000 in Zam Zam IDP camp/Darfur, probably more
Current Status:
- Fighting started in Khartoum, quickly spread to Darfur and country-wide
- RSF in the West, South; SAF in the East and North and recently the center
- Khartoum now controlled by SAF, but is badly damaged
- SAF (and what’s left of government) based in Port Sudan, on the Red Sea
- No U.S. diplomatic presence in country
Political
- 1989-2019: Military Dictator Omar al-Bashir (Islamic)
- 2003: Bashir establishes paramilitary force – “Janjaweed” – to pacify Darfur
- 2004-05: famine conditions in Darfur
- 2019: Civilian demonstrations lead to overthrow of Bashir and establishment of joint military/civilian government
- 2021: Military coup pushes out the civilians; US, African Union, European Union do not recognize new government
- 2023: Two military leaders start fighting
- 2025: RSF declares an independent state in areas under their control; no country recognizes it
The Players:
- Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), led by Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Burhan
- Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (Janjaweed’s successor), led by Gen. Mohamed (“Hemedti”) Hamdan Dagalo
- Sudan Peoples Liberation Front -North, SLM, others
- Various local/ethnic militias
Who’s supporting whom?
- SAF: Egypt, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Islamist groups
- RSF: United Arab Emirates, Mali, Niger
Complications:
- Active fighting is ongoing, neither side wants to stop
- Both sides actively inhibiting, blocking humanitarian aid
- Very limited ability for UN or NGOs to operate
- Reliable evidence of significant human rights abuses ongoing
- It’s a very big country with poor infrastructure